Most people who bet on sports simply place their bets and totally disregard keeping track of their statistics, which can only result with a person never becoming a better player. It’s imperative to keep track of your bets with some Bet Tracker so you can identify your weak spots. Poker players know this as “leaks”, and sports bettors don’t have a name for it but it’s pretty much the same thing. You’re looking back at your performance and trying to idenfity some situations in which you should have played differently.
Maybe you have a favorite team so because of emotions you’re losing bets, which the bet tracker will ruthlessly show you. Maybe you’re betting too much on one bet you like, for example home favorites, and it turns out that’s not your best bet. Maybe you should be betting more on those player props as you’re most profitable there. Maybe you even find out you’re much better when betting on “under” than on “over” when betting player props.
These things would be impossible to see unless you use some sort of a bet tracker that lets you take a look at your past performance.
Identifying positive stuff
When looking at your past performance, it’s not enough to simply remove the leaks or make them less profound, but it’s equally important to reinforce things you’re already doing well. For example, if you keep winning your bets on NFL underdogs, and there’s no doubt that this isn’t just a coincidence because it happens a lot and happens reliably, then maybe you should increase your bet a bit. Maybe go from $100 per game to $120. If you continue winning those bets on underdogs in the same degree as you did before, you should be more profitable in the end.
Numbers don’t lie
A bet tracker will tell you how it is. Your only job is to make sure you gather enough data, because you need to have at least several hundred bets, and preferably it would be two or three seasons worth of bets, before you can make any real conclusions about yourself and about your game. Given enough bets, your statistics will definitely tell you whatever you need to know – you just have to ask the right questions. Meaning, you need to be able to verbalize the situation surrounding that bet, so you can then put it with other bets that belong in the same group, and then analyze the group. Just as an example, you might group Saturday Night Football bets together to see how are you performing in those. It’s quite possible you’ll not be doing well and you’re only betting on those games because of the hype. Maybe the lowly Monday game between two weak teams – in London – at a strange hour – is a better choice for winning money on betting.
How you group your bets will make a huge difference. Be creative and think of as many groups as you can. One bet can belong to several different groups. For example, you might be angry because you lost the previous bet and are now trying to win back your money. You really want to label such bets and put them in the same group so you can later see if you did well or not.
How to improve your game
Don’t be too radical with your decisions and try to be subtle. For example, if you’re not doing too well with your prop bets don’t eliminate them completely, reduce the stake by some small percentage and then re-evaluate later. If you simply take a black/white approach to decisions you’ll create a mess. Have good groups, examine each of them, examine each bet. See if you won/lost because you should have or because of a referee mistake or something.
If you refine your game like this, and keep refining it, you might just reach a level where you can reliably increase your bet size to improve your overall profits on betting on NFL.